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Report forecasts fall in criminal legal aid spend
New research predicting that the cost of police station attendance, magistrates’ court representation and Crown Court litigation could be significantly less than expected has led to calls for the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) to review its proposal to cut criminal legal aid by £120m. Forecasting criminal legal aid expenditure, which was commissioned from Oxford Economics by the Law Society, the Criminal Law Solicitors’ Association, the London Criminal Courts Solicitors’ Association, the Legal Aid Practitioners Group and the Big Firms Group, was published last month.
Fall in legal aid costs without MoJ cuts
The report analysed the data available and considered what savings were likely to be made. The research looked in depth at the decline in crime spending and considered the likely budget based on this downward trend whereas the MoJ’s calculations were based on the assumption that the current circumstances remained constant. The report explains this succinctly:
Our analysis suggests that in the baseline scenario, which broadly follows the LAA’s [Legal Aid Agency’s] long-run methodology, the underlying future trend in criminal legal aid expenditure is flat. In contrast, criminal legal aid expenditure declines throughout the forecast period in the alternative scenario, which assumes further drops in crime reduce demand for criminal legal aid.
Comparison of results from the baseline and alternative scenarios suggests criminal legal aid expenditure could be £84 million lower in 2018/19 in the alternative scenario. This scenario therefore implies that around two-thirds of the MoJ’s planned savings would be expected to occur without further policy changes (page 3).
The report also evaluated how past reforms to legal aid were affecting costs, and suggested that savings may be even higher. The groups that commissioned the research have urged the MoJ to reconsider its programme of cuts in all areas of criminal spend.
Carol Storer, director of the Legal Aid Practitioners Group, welcomed the report: ‘This certainly accords with what our members have been saying for years. Several criminal practitioners in different parts of the country have talked about tumbleweed blowing through their local courts.’